DDM Analysis: 001296.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$19.57 - $44.35	$28.43
Multi-Stage	$14.04 - $15.33	$14.67
Blended Fair Value	$21.55
Current Price	$22.80
Upside	-5.48%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2016	2015	2014
DPS	146.47%	7.91%	0.31	0.08	0.23	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.30
YoY Growth	-	-	276.80%	-63.87%	3,326.02%	87.40%	4.07%	-46.84%	-5.79%	299.96%	-99.44%	109.28%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.79%	0.49%	1.63%	0.04%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.03%	0.01%	1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	142.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	31.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	110.39

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	28.45	17.78	10.67
Cash Retained (M)	110.39	110.39	110.39
(-) Cash Required (M)	-28.45	-17.78	-10.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)	81.94	92.61	99.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	147.34	147.34	147.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.56	0.63	0.68
LTM Dividend per Share	0.22	0.22	0.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.56	0.63	0.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.77	0.84	0.89
WACC / Discount Rate	9.67%	9.67%	9.67%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$19.57	$28.43	$44.35
Upside / Downside	-14.19%	24.68%	94.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	142.27	151.51	161.36	171.85	183.02	194.92	200.76
Payout Ratio	22.41%	35.92%	49.44%	62.96%	76.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	31.88	54.43	79.78	108.20	139.98	175.42	185.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.67%	9.67%	9.67%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	49.17	49.63	50.10
Year 2 PV (M)	65.10	66.34	67.59
Year 3 PV (M)	79.75	82.04	84.37
Year 4 PV (M)	93.19	96.78	100.46
Year 5 PV (M)	105.50	110.60	115.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,675.69	1,756.63	1,840.66
Equity Value (M)	2,068.40	2,162.01	2,259.08
Shares Outstanding (M)	147.34	147.34	147.34
Fair Value	$14.04	$14.67	$15.33
Upside / Downside	-38.43%	-35.64%	-32.75%

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Chongqing Changjiang River Moulding Material (Group) Co., Ltd. (001296.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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