DDM Analysis: 001266.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$18.74 - $76.84	$48.80
Multi-Stage	$37.97 - $41.94	$39.92
Blended Fair Value	$44.36
Current Price	$28.66
Upside	54.77%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
DPS	7.00%	0.00%	0.24	0.22	0.44	0.00	0.51	0.17	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	12.79%	-51.22%	0.00%	-100.00%	190.30%	452.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.04%	0.82%	1.55%	0.00%	1.27%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	41.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	34.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6.41

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.24	5.15	3.09
Cash Retained (M)	6.41	6.41	6.41
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.24	-5.15	-3.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-1.84	1.26	3.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	99.24	99.24	99.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.02	0.01	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.35	0.35	0.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.02	0.01	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.33	0.36	0.38
WACC / Discount Rate	-0.26%	-0.26%	-0.26%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$18.74	$48.80	$76.84
Upside / Downside	-34.60%	70.27%	168.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	41.22	40.81	40.40	40.00	39.60	39.20	40.38
Payout Ratio	84.46%	85.56%	86.67%	87.78%	88.89%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	34.81	34.92	35.02	35.11	35.20	35.28	37.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-0.26%	-0.26%	-0.26%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	34.66	35.01	35.36
Year 2 PV (M)	34.49	35.20	35.92
Year 3 PV (M)	34.33	35.39	36.47
Year 4 PV (M)	34.16	35.57	37.03
Year 5 PV (M)	33.98	35.75	37.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,597.04	3,784.35	3,979.38
Equity Value (M)	3,768.66	3,961.27	4,161.75
Shares Outstanding (M)	99.24	99.24	99.24
Fair Value	$37.97	$39.92	$41.94
Upside / Downside	32.50%	39.27%	46.32%

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Shanghai Smart Control Co., Ltd. (001266.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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