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Definitive Analysis

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Lu Thai Textile Co., Ltd. (000726.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.82 - $6.95$5.86
Multi-Stage$13.28 - $14.66$13.96
Blended Fair Value$9.91
Current Price$6.66
Upside48.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.51%-2.74%0.330.160.130.090.160.570.570.570.540.55
YoY Growth--108.99%23.08%34.93%-39.53%-72.65%0.80%-0.98%5.45%-1.99%28.00%
Dividend Yield--5.42%2.50%1.57%1.48%2.37%6.63%5.23%5.49%4.23%4.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)625.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)257.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)367.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)125.0378.1446.89
Cash Retained (M)367.87367.87367.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-125.03-78.14-46.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)242.84289.73320.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)892.70892.70892.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-4.74%-3.74%-2.74%
Fair Value$4.82$5.86$6.95
Upside / Downside-27.62%-12.06%4.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)625.14601.79579.31557.67536.84516.78532.29
Payout Ratio41.15%50.92%60.69%70.46%80.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)257.27306.45351.60392.94430.71465.11492.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-4.74%-3.74%-2.74%
Year 1 PV (M)285.20288.19291.19
Year 2 PV (M)304.52310.95317.44
Year 3 PV (M)316.73326.81337.10
Year 4 PV (M)323.09336.88351.09
Year 5 PV (M)324.70342.10360.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,304.9710,857.3011,433.07
Equity Value (M)11,859.2112,462.2313,090.14
Shares Outstanding (M)892.70892.70892.70
Fair Value$13.28$13.96$14.66
Upside / Downside99.47%109.61%120.17%

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