Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Midea Group Co., Ltd. (000333.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$523.41 - $1,164.91$1,091.69
Multi-Stage$176.87 - $193.47$185.01
Blended Fair Value$638.35
Current Price$72.66
Upside778.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.24%20.33%2.942.531.761.451.621.121.110.930.720.57
YoY Growth--16.06%43.46%21.79%-10.84%44.93%0.79%19.66%29.36%25.89%23.65%
Dividend Yield--3.74%3.82%3.28%2.54%1.97%2.31%2.10%1.70%2.16%2.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44,721.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25,657.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)19,064.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,944.305,590.193,354.11
Cash Retained (M)19,064.0919,064.0919,064.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,944.30-5,590.19-3,354.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,119.7913,473.9015,709.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,634.927,634.927,634.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.331.762.06
LTM Dividend per Share3.363.363.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.331.762.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.695.135.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$523.41$1,091.69$1,164.91
Upside / Downside620.36%1,402.47%1,503.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44,721.5147,628.4050,724.2554,021.3357,532.7161,272.3463,110.51
Payout Ratio57.37%63.90%70.42%76.95%83.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25,657.4230,433.2335,721.5041,568.6648,025.0355,145.1158,377.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)28,322.2428,590.7028,859.16
Year 2 PV (M)30,937.7631,527.0332,121.87
Year 3 PV (M)33,504.6234,466.4235,446.45
Year 4 PV (M)36,023.5037,408.8638,833.80
Year 5 PV (M)38,495.0440,354.3642,284.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,183,076.501,240,219.531,299,549.57
Equity Value (M)1,350,359.651,412,566.911,477,095.70
Shares Outstanding (M)7,634.927,634.927,634.92
Fair Value$176.87$185.01$193.47
Upside / Downside143.42%154.63%166.26%

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