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Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$162.09 - $308.48$221.08
Multi-Stage$151.83 - $166.13$158.85
Blended Fair Value$189.97
Current Price$128.82
Upside47.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.71%9.00%1.851.651.501.391.261.161.100.970.860.82
YoY Growth--11.94%10.17%7.63%10.51%8.34%6.04%13.38%12.34%5.27%4.73%
Dividend Yield--1.96%1.34%1.80%1.38%1.06%1.23%1.79%1.06%1.33%2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)666.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)128.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)538.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)133.2683.2949.97
Cash Retained (M)538.10538.10538.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-133.26-83.29-49.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)404.84454.81488.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)65.0165.0165.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.237.007.51
LTM Dividend per Share1.971.971.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.237.007.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.208.979.48
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate3.85%4.85%5.85%
Fair Value$162.09$221.08$308.48
Upside / Downside25.83%71.62%139.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)666.30698.58732.43767.92805.13844.13869.46
Payout Ratio19.24%33.39%47.54%61.70%75.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)128.20233.27348.23473.78610.67759.72804.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate3.85%4.85%5.85%
Year 1 PV (M)211.78213.82215.86
Year 2 PV (M)287.02292.57298.18
Year 3 PV (M)354.52364.86375.40
Year 4 PV (M)414.85431.06447.75
Year 5 PV (M)468.55491.55515.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,134.088,533.348,948.13
Equity Value (M)9,870.8010,327.2110,800.76
Shares Outstanding (M)65.0165.0165.01
Fair Value$151.83$158.85$166.13
Upside / Downside17.86%23.31%28.97%

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