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OceanFirst Financial Corp. (OCFC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.40 - $85.94$49.54
Multi-Stage$23.15 - $25.24$24.18
Blended Fair Value$36.86
Current Price$17.57
Upside109.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.24%19.97%0.880.890.820.770.740.590.510.330.220.15
YoY Growth---0.77%7.92%6.74%3.71%25.34%15.82%53.29%52.87%45.13%5.48%
Dividend Yield--5.18%5.61%4.45%3.83%3.10%3.73%2.12%1.25%0.77%0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.969.975.98
Cash Retained (M)30.3430.3430.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.96-9.97-5.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.3820.3724.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)57.7757.7757.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.350.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.350.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.101.211.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.40$49.54$85.94
Upside / Downside84.40%181.96%389.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.7984.9890.5096.39102.65109.32112.60
Payout Ratio61.98%67.58%73.19%78.79%84.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.4557.4366.2475.9486.6398.39104.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)52.1552.6453.14
Year 2 PV (M)54.6155.6556.70
Year 3 PV (M)56.8558.4860.15
Year 4 PV (M)58.8961.1563.48
Year 5 PV (M)60.7363.6666.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,054.241,105.161,158.03
Equity Value (M)1,337.471,396.751,458.20
Shares Outstanding (M)57.7757.7757.77
Fair Value$23.15$24.18$25.24
Upside / Downside31.76%37.60%43.65%

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