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Deere & Company (DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$434.09 - $1,151.52$663.77
Multi-Stage$300.57 - $328.20$314.13
Blended Fair Value$488.95
Current Price$461.63
Upside5.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.46%7.74%6.335.915.254.833.833.523.472.972.812.80
YoY Growth--7.17%12.47%8.68%26.25%8.79%1.38%17.03%5.47%0.35%-6.74%
Dividend Yield--1.37%1.22%1.32%1.15%1.02%1.20%2.19%1.90%1.66%2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,027.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,720.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,307.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,005.40628.38377.03
Cash Retained (M)3,307.003,307.003,307.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,005.40-628.38-377.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,301.602,678.632,929.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)271.65271.65271.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.479.8610.79
LTM Dividend per Share6.336.336.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.479.8610.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.8016.1917.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$434.09$663.77$1,151.52
Upside / Downside-5.97%43.79%149.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,027.005,353.765,701.756,072.366,467.076,887.437,094.05
Payout Ratio34.22%45.37%56.53%67.69%78.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,720.002,429.123,223.154,110.155,098.836,198.686,561.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,205.642,226.542,247.45
Year 2 PV (M)2,657.372,707.992,759.08
Year 3 PV (M)3,076.913,165.243,255.24
Year 4 PV (M)3,465.893,599.183,736.28
Year 5 PV (M)3,825.874,010.664,202.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)66,416.9369,624.8972,955.63
Equity Value (M)81,648.6185,334.5089,156.20
Shares Outstanding (M)271.65271.65271.65
Fair Value$300.57$314.13$328.20
Upside / Downside-34.89%-31.95%-28.90%

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