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Burke & Herbert Bank & Trust Company (BHRB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$166.55 - $441.80$254.67
Multi-Stage$114.99 - $125.58$120.18
Blended Fair Value$187.43
Current Price$61.69
Upside203.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS13.82%0.00%1.901.051.050.990.991.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--81.85%0.03%5.86%-0.23%-0.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.39%1.91%1.42%1.77%2.03%2.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.3713.368.01
Cash Retained (M)72.9772.9772.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.37-13.36-8.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.6059.6164.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.0515.0515.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.433.964.32
LTM Dividend per Share2.252.252.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.433.964.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.686.216.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$166.55$254.67$441.80
Upside / Downside169.97%312.82%616.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.86113.80121.20129.08137.47146.40150.79
Payout Ratio31.71%43.37%55.03%66.68%78.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.8949.3566.6986.07107.69131.76139.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)44.8145.2445.66
Year 2 PV (M)54.9856.0357.09
Year 3 PV (M)64.4466.2968.17
Year 4 PV (M)73.2076.0278.91
Year 5 PV (M)81.3285.2589.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,411.771,479.961,550.76
Equity Value (M)1,730.531,808.791,889.93
Shares Outstanding (M)15.0515.0515.05
Fair Value$114.99$120.18$125.58
Upside / Downside86.39%94.82%103.56%

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