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Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (BBW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.20 - $61.52$50.16
Multi-Stage$55.14 - $60.49$57.76
Blended Fair Value$53.96
Current Price$54.22
Upside-0.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.840.000.020.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--22,866.67%-83.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.29%0.01%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.507.194.31
Cash Retained (M)46.2846.2846.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.50-7.19-4.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.7839.0941.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.1713.1713.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.642.973.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.642.973.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.493.824.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate0.38%1.38%2.38%
Fair Value$40.20$50.16$61.52
Upside / Downside-25.86%-7.49%13.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.4958.2859.0859.9060.7361.5663.41
Payout Ratio19.50%33.60%47.70%61.80%75.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.2119.5828.1837.0246.0955.4158.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate0.38%1.38%2.38%
Year 1 PV (M)17.7717.9518.13
Year 2 PV (M)23.2123.6824.15
Year 3 PV (M)27.6728.5129.36
Year 4 PV (M)31.2732.5333.84
Year 5 PV (M)34.1235.8537.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)592.25622.35653.65
Equity Value (M)726.30760.87796.78
Shares Outstanding (M)13.1713.1713.17
Fair Value$55.14$57.76$60.49
Upside / Downside1.69%6.53%11.56%

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