Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shaanxi Meibang Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (605033.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.48 - $2.11$1.79
Multi-Stage$2.45 - $2.68$2.56
Blended Fair Value$2.18
Current Price$22.22
Upside-90.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS68.64%0.00%0.210.220.200.020.010.020.030.030.000.00
YoY Growth---5.31%11.84%709.99%370.98%-66.24%-42.19%-0.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.19%1.43%1.12%0.14%0.03%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.963.722.23
Cash Retained (M)8.238.238.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.96-3.72-2.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.284.516.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)135.67135.67135.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.64%9.64%9.64%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.48$1.79$2.11
Upside / Downside-93.34%-91.95%-90.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.7829.4829.1928.8928.6128.3229.17
Payout Ratio72.35%75.88%79.41%82.94%86.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.5522.3723.1823.9724.7425.4926.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.64%9.64%9.64%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)20.2020.4020.61
Year 2 PV (M)18.8919.2819.67
Year 3 PV (M)17.6418.1918.74
Year 4 PV (M)16.4417.1217.82
Year 5 PV (M)15.2916.0916.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)243.98256.68269.91
Equity Value (M)332.44347.76363.68
Shares Outstanding (M)135.67135.67135.67
Fair Value$2.45$2.56$2.68
Upside / Downside-88.97%-88.46%-87.94%

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