Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China XD Electric Co., Ltd (601179.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.55 - $9.86$6.51
Multi-Stage$3.33 - $3.64$3.48
Blended Fair Value$4.99
Current Price$6.76
Upside-26.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.78%1.28%0.100.060.030.030.060.040.060.100.140.10
YoY Growth--79.47%68.60%4.64%-44.25%39.70%-27.43%-44.59%-27.48%37.15%15.09%
Dividend Yield--1.56%1.05%0.65%0.72%1.32%0.82%1.32%2.50%2.25%1.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,205.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)325.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)880.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)241.18150.7490.44
Cash Retained (M)880.62880.62880.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-241.18-150.74-90.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)639.44729.88790.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,113.925,113.925,113.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.55$6.51$9.86
Upside / Downside-32.74%-3.75%45.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,205.911,284.301,367.781,456.681,551.371,652.211,701.77
Payout Ratio26.97%39.58%52.18%64.79%77.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)325.29508.32713.77943.781,200.681,486.991,574.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)458.28462.63466.97
Year 2 PV (M)580.16591.21602.37
Year 3 PV (M)691.60711.46731.69
Year 4 PV (M)793.24823.75855.13
Year 5 PV (M)885.69928.47972.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,633.2114,291.7014,975.39
Equity Value (M)17,042.2017,809.2218,604.43
Shares Outstanding (M)5,113.925,113.925,113.92
Fair Value$3.33$3.48$3.64
Upside / Downside-50.70%-48.48%-46.18%

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