Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (600600.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$218.12 - $492.90$461.92
Multi-Stage$73.36 - $80.31$76.77
Blended Fair Value$269.34
Current Price$65.92
Upside308.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.11%15.88%1.471.330.810.560.400.350.320.260.290.33
YoY Growth--10.68%63.97%44.84%40.10%13.49%11.11%23.65%-11.67%-13.04%-0.99%
Dividend Yield--1.93%1.60%0.67%0.71%0.47%0.77%0.69%0.63%0.88%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,629.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,557.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,071.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)925.89578.68347.21
Cash Retained (M)3,071.783,071.783,071.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-925.89-578.68-347.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,145.892,493.102,724.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,867.901,867.901,867.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.331.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.331.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.982.172.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$218.12$461.92$492.90
Upside / Downside230.89%600.72%647.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,629.454,930.365,250.835,592.145,955.636,342.746,533.03
Payout Ratio33.65%44.92%56.19%67.46%78.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,557.672,214.602,950.353,772.394,688.835,708.476,043.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,060.702,080.242,099.77
Year 2 PV (M)2,554.552,603.212,652.32
Year 3 PV (M)3,039.333,126.583,215.48
Year 4 PV (M)3,515.173,650.353,789.40
Year 5 PV (M)3,982.194,174.534,374.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)121,873.40127,759.93133,871.75
Equity Value (M)137,025.34143,394.84150,002.96
Shares Outstanding (M)1,867.901,867.901,867.90
Fair Value$73.36$76.77$80.31
Upside / Downside11.28%16.46%21.82%

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