Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Animal Husbandry Industry Co., Ltd. (600195.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.45 - $4.05$3.16
Multi-Stage$2.85 - $3.13$2.99
Blended Fair Value$3.08
Current Price$7.16
Upside-57.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.87%6.95%0.160.210.160.130.090.180.180.150.090.10
YoY Growth---22.59%26.52%21.62%52.50%-52.41%-0.19%26.29%65.06%-13.92%26.49%
Dividend Yield--2.48%2.11%1.09%1.03%0.72%1.69%2.28%1.60%1.03%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)214.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)193.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.8926.8016.08
Cash Retained (M)193.34193.34193.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.89-26.80-16.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)150.45166.53177.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,021.091,021.091,021.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate2.08%3.08%4.08%
Fair Value$2.45$3.16$4.05
Upside / Downside-65.72%-55.82%-43.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)214.44221.03227.83234.84242.06249.51257.00
Payout Ratio9.84%25.87%41.90%57.94%73.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.1057.1995.47136.06179.05224.56237.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate2.08%3.08%4.08%
Year 1 PV (M)51.9252.4352.94
Year 2 PV (M)78.7180.2681.83
Year 3 PV (M)101.85104.88107.96
Year 4 PV (M)121.71126.55131.53
Year 5 PV (M)138.60145.52152.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,419.542,540.402,666.04
Equity Value (M)2,912.333,050.043,193.01
Shares Outstanding (M)1,021.091,021.091,021.09
Fair Value$2.85$2.99$3.13
Upside / Downside-60.17%-58.28%-56.33%

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