DDM Analysis: MAKRO.BK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$22.69 - $103.43	$39.82
Multi-Stage	$13.84 - $15.14	$14.48
Blended Fair Value	$27.15
Current Price	$36.00
Upside	-24.58%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
DPS	4.37%	7.44%	0.49	0.45	0.43	0.43	0.43	0.40	0.36	0.37	0.29	0.39
YoY Growth	-	-	10.21%	4.17%	0.00%	0.00%	7.87%	9.88%	-1.22%	26.15%	-24.64%	60.47%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.26%	1.13%	1.13%	1.31%	1.22%	0.88%	1.07%	1.08%	0.82%	1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7,755.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,904.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)	5,850.71

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,551.03	969.40	581.64
Cash Retained (M)	5,850.71	5,850.71	5,850.71
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,551.03	-969.40	-581.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4,299.67	4,881.31	5,269.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	10,692.59	10,692.59	10,692.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.40	0.46	0.49
LTM Dividend per Share	0.18	0.18	0.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.40	0.46	0.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.58	0.63	0.67
WACC / Discount Rate	8.20%	8.20%	8.20%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$22.69	$39.82	$103.43
Upside / Downside	-36.96%	10.62%	187.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7,755.17	8,259.25	8,796.10	9,367.85	9,976.76	10,625.25	10,944.01
Payout Ratio	24.56%	37.65%	50.73%	63.82%	76.91%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,904.46	3,109.26	4,462.65	5,978.83	7,673.27	9,562.72	10,123.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.20%	8.20%	8.20%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,846.72	2,873.70	2,900.68
Year 2 PV (M)	3,740.81	3,812.06	3,883.99
Year 3 PV (M)	4,588.56	4,720.28	4,854.50
Year 4 PV (M)	5,391.71	5,599.06	5,812.34
Year 5 PV (M)	6,151.98	6,449.12	6,757.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)	125,307.38	131,359.77	137,643.80
Equity Value (M)	148,027.15	154,814.00	161,852.94
Shares Outstanding (M)	10,692.59	10,692.59	10,692.59
Fair Value	$13.84	$14.48	$15.14
Upside / Downside	-61.54%	-59.78%	-57.95%

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Siam Makro Public Company Limited (MAKRO.BK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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