Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Siam Makro Public Company Limited (MAKRO.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.69 - $103.43$39.82
Multi-Stage$13.84 - $15.14$14.48
Blended Fair Value$27.15
Current Price$36.00
Upside-24.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS4.37%7.44%0.490.450.430.430.430.400.360.370.290.39
YoY Growth--10.21%4.17%0.00%0.00%7.87%9.88%-1.22%26.15%-24.64%60.47%
Dividend Yield--1.26%1.13%1.13%1.31%1.22%0.88%1.07%1.08%0.82%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,755.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,904.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,850.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,551.03969.40581.64
Cash Retained (M)5,850.715,850.715,850.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,551.03-969.40-581.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,299.674,881.315,269.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,692.5910,692.5910,692.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.69$39.82$103.43
Upside / Downside-36.96%10.62%187.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,755.178,259.258,796.109,367.859,976.7610,625.2510,944.01
Payout Ratio24.56%37.65%50.73%63.82%76.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,904.463,109.264,462.655,978.837,673.279,562.7210,123.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.20%8.20%8.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,846.722,873.702,900.68
Year 2 PV (M)3,740.813,812.063,883.99
Year 3 PV (M)4,588.564,720.284,854.50
Year 4 PV (M)5,391.715,599.065,812.34
Year 5 PV (M)6,151.986,449.126,757.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)125,307.38131,359.77137,643.80
Equity Value (M)148,027.15154,814.00161,852.94
Shares Outstanding (M)10,692.5910,692.5910,692.59
Fair Value$13.84$14.48$15.14
Upside / Downside-61.54%-59.78%-57.95%

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