DDM Analysis: BGCG.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.88 - $2.66	$2.27
Multi-Stage	$2.79 - $3.07	$2.93
Blended Fair Value	$2.60
Current Price	$2.66
Upside	-2.35%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-22.46%	-8.51%	0.02	0.02	0.05	0.07	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	15.75%	-63.06%	-35.66%	13.40%	-10.18%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.87%	0.97%	1.54%	2.17%	1.20%	2.17%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	17.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)	14.71

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3.44	2.15	1.29
Cash Retained (M)	14.71	14.71	14.71
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3.44	-2.15	-1.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)	11.27	12.56	13.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	60.25	60.25	60.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.21	0.22
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.21	0.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.23	0.25	0.26
WACC / Discount Rate	9.92%	9.92%	9.92%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$1.88	$2.27	$2.66
Upside / Downside	-29.35%	-14.80%	0.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	17.22	17.05	16.88	16.71	16.54	16.38	16.87
Payout Ratio	14.58%	29.66%	44.75%	59.83%	74.92%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2.51	5.06	7.55	10.00	12.39	14.74	15.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.92%	9.92%	9.92%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	4.55	4.60	4.65
Year 2 PV (M)	6.12	6.25	6.38
Year 3 PV (M)	7.30	7.53	7.76
Year 4 PV (M)	8.15	8.49	8.84
Year 5 PV (M)	8.73	9.18	9.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)	133.47	140.42	147.66
Equity Value (M)	168.33	176.47	184.93
Shares Outstanding (M)	60.25	60.25	60.25
Fair Value	$2.79	$2.93	$3.07
Upside / Downside	5.03%	10.10%	15.38%

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Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC (BGCG.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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