Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC (BGCG.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.88 - $2.66$2.27
Multi-Stage$2.79 - $3.07$2.93
Blended Fair Value$2.60
Current Price$2.66
Upside-2.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-22.46%-8.51%0.020.020.050.070.060.070.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--15.75%-63.06%-35.66%13.40%-10.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.87%0.97%1.54%2.17%1.20%2.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.442.151.29
Cash Retained (M)14.7114.7114.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.44-2.15-1.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.2712.5613.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60.2560.2560.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.88$2.27$2.66
Upside / Downside-29.35%-14.80%0.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17.2217.0516.8816.7116.5416.3816.87
Payout Ratio14.58%29.66%44.75%59.83%74.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.515.067.5510.0012.3914.7415.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4.554.604.65
Year 2 PV (M)6.126.256.38
Year 3 PV (M)7.307.537.76
Year 4 PV (M)8.158.498.84
Year 5 PV (M)8.739.189.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)133.47140.42147.66
Equity Value (M)168.33176.47184.93
Shares Outstanding (M)60.2560.2560.25
Fair Value$2.79$2.93$3.07
Upside / Downside5.03%10.10%15.38%

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