DDM Analysis: BAG.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8.78 - $14.41	$11.28
Multi-Stage	$9.55 - $10.44	$9.99
Blended Fair Value	$10.63
Current Price	$6.10
Upside	74.34%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-1.97%	2.76%	0.15	0.13	0.12	0.12	0.17	0.17	0.16	0.15	0.14	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	17.01%	5.76%	3.73%	-29.47%	0.00%	6.15%	5.92%	8.33%	9.09%	9.16%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.51%	2.31%	2.25%	2.41%	3.43%	2.80%	2.11%	2.34%	2.77%	2.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	84.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	35.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	49.50

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	16.98	10.61	6.37
Cash Retained (M)	49.50	49.50	49.50
(-) Cash Required (M)	-16.98	-10.61	-6.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)	32.52	38.89	43.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	112.26	112.26	112.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.35	0.38
LTM Dividend per Share	0.32	0.32	0.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.35	0.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.61	0.66	0.70
WACC / Discount Rate	9.98%	9.98%	9.98%
Growth Rate	2.89%	3.89%	4.89%
Fair Value	$8.78	$11.28	$14.41
Upside / Downside	43.86%	84.95%	136.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	84.90	88.20	91.63	95.19	98.89	102.73	105.81
Payout Ratio	41.70%	51.36%	61.02%	70.68%	80.34%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	35.40	45.30	55.91	67.28	79.45	92.46	97.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.98%	9.98%	9.98%
Growth Rate	2.89%	3.89%	4.89%
Year 1 PV (M)	40.79	41.19	41.58
Year 2 PV (M)	45.34	46.22	47.12
Year 3 PV (M)	49.13	50.57	52.05
Year 4 PV (M)	52.24	54.30	56.42
Year 5 PV (M)	54.75	57.46	60.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)	830.37	871.51	914.27
Equity Value (M)	1,072.61	1,121.26	1,171.73
Shares Outstanding (M)	112.26	112.26	112.26
Fair Value	$9.55	$9.99	$10.44
Upside / Downside	56.63%	63.73%	71.10%

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A.G. BARR p.l.c. (BAG.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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