Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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A.G. BARR p.l.c. (BAG.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.78 - $14.41$11.28
Multi-Stage$9.55 - $10.44$9.99
Blended Fair Value$10.63
Current Price$6.10
Upside74.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.97%2.76%0.150.130.120.120.170.170.160.150.140.13
YoY Growth--17.01%5.76%3.73%-29.47%0.00%6.15%5.92%8.33%9.09%9.16%
Dividend Yield--2.51%2.31%2.25%2.41%3.43%2.80%2.11%2.34%2.77%2.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.9810.616.37
Cash Retained (M)49.5049.5049.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.98-10.61-6.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)32.5238.8943.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)112.26112.26112.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.350.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.350.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate2.89%3.89%4.89%
Fair Value$8.78$11.28$14.41
Upside / Downside43.86%84.95%136.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.9088.2091.6395.1998.89102.73105.81
Payout Ratio41.70%51.36%61.02%70.68%80.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.4045.3055.9167.2879.4592.4697.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate2.89%3.89%4.89%
Year 1 PV (M)40.7941.1941.58
Year 2 PV (M)45.3446.2247.12
Year 3 PV (M)49.1350.5752.05
Year 4 PV (M)52.2454.3056.42
Year 5 PV (M)54.7557.4660.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)830.37871.51914.27
Equity Value (M)1,072.611,121.261,171.73
Shares Outstanding (M)112.26112.26112.26
Fair Value$9.55$9.99$10.44
Upside / Downside56.63%63.73%71.10%

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