DDM Analysis: 600838.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.60 - $0.83	$0.71
Multi-Stage	$1.00 - $1.09	$1.04
Blended Fair Value	$0.88
Current Price	$8.44
Upside	-89.61%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-8.66%	-3.76%	0.05	0.04	0.08	0.04	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.14	0.07	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	17.63%	-48.05%	92.50%	-46.67%	1.35%	1.39%	-46.73%	95.74%	112.10%	-52.20%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.58%	0.60%	1.12%	0.56%	1.15%	1.16%	0.93%	1.43%	0.45%	0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	42.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	18.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)	23.97

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.57	5.35	3.21
Cash Retained (M)	23.97	23.97	23.97
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.57	-5.35	-3.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)	15.40	18.62	20.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	405.55	405.55	405.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.08	0.09	0.10
WACC / Discount Rate	9.96%	9.96%	9.96%
Growth Rate	-3.68%	-2.68%	-1.68%
Fair Value	$0.60	$0.71	$0.83
Upside / Downside	-92.93%	-91.57%	-90.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	42.83	41.69	40.57	39.49	38.43	37.40	38.52
Payout Ratio	44.04%	53.23%	62.42%	71.61%	80.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	18.86	22.19	25.33	28.28	31.05	33.66	35.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.96%	9.96%	9.96%
Growth Rate	-3.68%	-2.68%	-1.68%
Year 1 PV (M)	19.97	20.18	20.39
Year 2 PV (M)	20.52	20.94	21.38
Year 3 PV (M)	20.62	21.27	21.93
Year 4 PV (M)	20.38	21.24	22.13
Year 5 PV (M)	19.88	20.94	22.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	302.31	318.33	335.02
Equity Value (M)	403.68	422.90	442.88
Shares Outstanding (M)	405.55	405.55	405.55
Fair Value	$1.00	$1.04	$1.09
Upside / Downside	-88.21%	-87.64%	-87.06%

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Shanghai Join Buy Co.,Ltd. (600838.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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