Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Join Buy Co.,Ltd. (600838.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.60 - $0.83$0.71
Multi-Stage$1.00 - $1.09$1.04
Blended Fair Value$0.88
Current Price$8.44
Upside-89.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.66%-3.76%0.050.040.080.040.070.070.070.140.070.03
YoY Growth--17.63%-48.05%92.50%-46.67%1.35%1.39%-46.73%95.74%112.10%-52.20%
Dividend Yield--0.58%0.60%1.12%0.56%1.15%1.16%0.93%1.43%0.45%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.575.353.21
Cash Retained (M)23.9723.9723.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.57-5.35-3.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.4018.6220.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)405.55405.55405.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-3.68%-2.68%-1.68%
Fair Value$0.60$0.71$0.83
Upside / Downside-92.93%-91.57%-90.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.8341.6940.5739.4938.4337.4038.52
Payout Ratio44.04%53.23%62.42%71.61%80.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.8622.1925.3328.2831.0533.6635.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-3.68%-2.68%-1.68%
Year 1 PV (M)19.9720.1820.39
Year 2 PV (M)20.5220.9421.38
Year 3 PV (M)20.6221.2721.93
Year 4 PV (M)20.3821.2422.13
Year 5 PV (M)19.8820.9422.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)302.31318.33335.02
Equity Value (M)403.68422.90442.88
Shares Outstanding (M)405.55405.55405.55
Fair Value$1.00$1.04$1.09
Upside / Downside-88.21%-87.64%-87.06%

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