DDM Analysis: 4200.SR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$86.40 - $204.79	$127.45
Multi-Stage	$62.17 - $67.85	$64.96
Blended Fair Value	$96.20
Current Price	$125.30
Upside	-23.22%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.45%	2.26%	0.75	1.50	1.13	0.60	0.90	0.50	0.50	0.40	0.80	0.80
YoY Growth	-	-	-50.00%	33.33%	87.50%	-33.33%	80.00%	0.00%	25.00%	-50.00%	0.00%	33.33%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.54%	1.21%	1.58%	1.03%	2.11%	1.49%	3.02%	2.96%	5.79%	5.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	407.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	150.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	257.12

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	81.42	50.89	30.53
Cash Retained (M)	257.12	257.12	257.12
(-) Cash Required (M)	-81.42	-50.89	-30.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	175.70	206.23	226.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	100.00	100.00	100.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.76	2.06	2.27
LTM Dividend per Share	1.50	1.50	1.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.76	2.06	2.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.26	3.56	3.77
WACC / Discount Rate	9.48%	9.48%	9.48%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$86.40	$127.45	$204.79
Upside / Downside	-31.04%	1.71%	63.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	407.12	433.59	461.77	491.79	523.75	557.80	574.53
Payout Ratio	36.84%	47.48%	58.11%	68.74%	79.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	150.00	205.85	268.32	338.04	415.70	502.02	531.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.48%	9.48%	9.48%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	186.26	188.03	189.79
Year 2 PV (M)	219.69	223.87	228.10
Year 3 PV (M)	250.44	257.63	264.96
Year 4 PV (M)	278.67	289.39	300.41
Year 5 PV (M)	304.52	319.23	334.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,977.29	5,217.70	5,467.30
Equity Value (M)	6,216.88	6,495.85	6,785.07
Shares Outstanding (M)	100.00	100.00	100.00
Fair Value	$62.17	$64.96	$67.85
Upside / Downside	-50.38%	-48.16%	-45.85%

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Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Company (4200.SR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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