Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Company (4200.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$86.40 - $204.79$127.45
Multi-Stage$62.17 - $67.85$64.96
Blended Fair Value$96.20
Current Price$125.30
Upside-23.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.45%2.26%0.751.501.130.600.900.500.500.400.800.80
YoY Growth---50.00%33.33%87.50%-33.33%80.00%0.00%25.00%-50.00%0.00%33.33%
Dividend Yield--0.54%1.21%1.58%1.03%2.11%1.49%3.02%2.96%5.79%5.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)407.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)150.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)257.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.4250.8930.53
Cash Retained (M)257.12257.12257.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.42-50.89-30.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)175.70206.23226.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.00100.00100.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.762.062.27
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.762.062.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.263.563.77
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$86.40$127.45$204.79
Upside / Downside-31.04%1.71%63.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)407.12433.59461.77491.79523.75557.80574.53
Payout Ratio36.84%47.48%58.11%68.74%79.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)150.00205.85268.32338.04415.70502.02531.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)186.26188.03189.79
Year 2 PV (M)219.69223.87228.10
Year 3 PV (M)250.44257.63264.96
Year 4 PV (M)278.67289.39300.41
Year 5 PV (M)304.52319.23334.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,977.295,217.705,467.30
Equity Value (M)6,216.886,495.856,785.07
Shares Outstanding (M)100.00100.00100.00
Fair Value$62.17$64.96$67.85
Upside / Downside-50.38%-48.16%-45.85%

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