DDM Analysis: 002938.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$49.00 - $178.02	$81.71
Multi-Stage	$45.59 - $49.92	$47.72
Blended Fair Value	$64.72
Current Price	$56.07
Upside	15.42%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.85%	25.48%	0.55	0.76	0.53	0.51	0.51	0.53	0.44	0.63	0.21	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	-27.37%	43.45%	2.81%	0.39%	-2.98%	18.78%	-28.97%	195.96%	99.00%	86.72%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.52%	3.34%	1.70%	1.78%	1.43%	1.66%	1.55%	2.70%	0.91%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,053.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,406.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,646.94

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	810.73	506.71	304.02
Cash Retained (M)	1,646.94	1,646.94	1,646.94
(-) Cash Required (M)	-810.73	-506.71	-304.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)	836.21	1,140.23	1,342.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,318.65	2,318.65	2,318.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.36	0.49	0.58
LTM Dividend per Share	1.04	1.04	1.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.36	0.49	0.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.40	1.53	1.62
WACC / Discount Rate	6.68%	6.68%	6.68%
Growth Rate	3.72%	4.72%	5.72%
Fair Value	$49.00	$81.71	$178.02
Upside / Downside	-12.61%	45.74%	217.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,053.66	4,244.79	4,444.94	4,654.52	4,873.99	5,103.81	5,256.92
Payout Ratio	59.37%	65.50%	71.62%	77.75%	83.87%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,406.71	2,780.22	3,183.59	3,618.83	4,088.03	4,593.43	4,862.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.68%	6.68%	6.68%
Growth Rate	3.72%	4.72%	5.72%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,581.35	2,606.24	2,631.13
Year 2 PV (M)	2,744.44	2,797.62	2,851.31
Year 3 PV (M)	2,896.49	2,981.08	3,067.31
Year 4 PV (M)	3,037.99	3,156.86	3,279.19
Year 5 PV (M)	3,169.40	3,325.17	3,487.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)	91,285.07	95,771.52	100,432.65
Equity Value (M)	105,714.74	110,638.49	115,748.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,318.65	2,318.65	2,318.65
Fair Value	$45.59	$47.72	$49.92
Upside / Downside	-18.69%	-14.90%	-10.97%

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Avary Holding(Shenzhen)Co., Limited (002938.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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