Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Avary Holding(Shenzhen)Co., Limited (002938.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.00 - $178.02$81.71
Multi-Stage$45.59 - $49.92$47.72
Blended Fair Value$64.72
Current Price$56.07
Upside15.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.85%25.48%0.550.760.530.510.510.530.440.630.210.11
YoY Growth---27.37%43.45%2.81%0.39%-2.98%18.78%-28.97%195.96%99.00%86.72%
Dividend Yield--1.52%3.34%1.70%1.78%1.43%1.66%1.55%2.70%0.91%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,053.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,406.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,646.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)810.73506.71304.02
Cash Retained (M)1,646.941,646.941,646.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-810.73-506.71-304.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)836.211,140.231,342.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,318.652,318.652,318.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.490.58
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.490.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.401.531.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate3.72%4.72%5.72%
Fair Value$49.00$81.71$178.02
Upside / Downside-12.61%45.74%217.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,053.664,244.794,444.944,654.524,873.995,103.815,256.92
Payout Ratio59.37%65.50%71.62%77.75%83.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,406.712,780.223,183.593,618.834,088.034,593.434,862.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate3.72%4.72%5.72%
Year 1 PV (M)2,581.352,606.242,631.13
Year 2 PV (M)2,744.442,797.622,851.31
Year 3 PV (M)2,896.492,981.083,067.31
Year 4 PV (M)3,037.993,156.863,279.19
Year 5 PV (M)3,169.403,325.173,487.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)91,285.0795,771.52100,432.65
Equity Value (M)105,714.74110,638.49115,748.58
Shares Outstanding (M)2,318.652,318.652,318.65
Fair Value$45.59$47.72$49.92
Upside / Downside-18.69%-14.90%-10.97%

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