DDM Analysis: 002838.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$63.95 - $75.35	$70.61
Multi-Stage	$13.67 - $14.97	$14.31
Blended Fair Value	$42.46
Current Price	$27.78
Upside	52.85%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-0.57%	22.29%	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.19	0.35	0.10	0.07	0.05	0.01	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	7.80%	8.78%	-57.63%	-44.06%	249.67%	45.37%	49.02%	421.04%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.57%	0.80%	0.49%	1.13%	1.68%	0.26%	0.52%	0.31%	0.06%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	173.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	65.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)	107.64

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	34.66	21.66	13.00
Cash Retained (M)	107.64	107.64	107.64
(-) Cash Required (M)	-34.66	-21.66	-13.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)	72.98	85.98	94.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	457.43	457.43	457.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.19	0.21
LTM Dividend per Share	0.14	0.14	0.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.19	0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.30	0.33	0.35
WACC / Discount Rate	5.87%	5.87%	5.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$63.95	$70.61	$75.35
Upside / Downside	130.22%	154.19%	171.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	173.31	184.58	196.57	209.35	222.96	237.45	244.58
Payout Ratio	37.89%	48.31%	58.73%	69.16%	79.58%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	65.67	89.17	115.46	144.78	177.43	213.71	226.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.87%	5.87%	5.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	83.44	84.23	85.02
Year 2 PV (M)	101.09	103.01	104.96
Year 3 PV (M)	118.62	122.02	125.49
Year 4 PV (M)	136.02	141.25	146.63
Year 5 PV (M)	153.30	160.71	168.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,662.04	5,935.52	6,219.46
Equity Value (M)	6,254.51	6,546.74	6,849.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	457.43	457.43	457.43
Fair Value	$13.67	$14.31	$14.97
Upside / Downside	-50.78%	-48.48%	-46.10%

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Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.,Ltd. (002838.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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