Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.,Ltd. (002838.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.95 - $75.35$70.61
Multi-Stage$13.67 - $14.97$14.31
Blended Fair Value$42.46
Current Price$27.78
Upside52.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.57%22.29%0.100.090.080.190.350.100.070.050.010.00
YoY Growth--7.80%8.78%-57.63%-44.06%249.67%45.37%49.02%421.04%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.80%0.49%1.13%1.68%0.26%0.52%0.31%0.06%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)65.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.6621.6613.00
Cash Retained (M)107.64107.64107.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.66-21.66-13.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)72.9885.9894.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)457.43457.43457.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate5.87%5.87%5.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$63.95$70.61$75.35
Upside / Downside130.22%154.19%171.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.31184.58196.57209.35222.96237.45244.58
Payout Ratio37.89%48.31%58.73%69.16%79.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)65.6789.17115.46144.78177.43213.71226.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.87%5.87%5.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)83.4484.2385.02
Year 2 PV (M)101.09103.01104.96
Year 3 PV (M)118.62122.02125.49
Year 4 PV (M)136.02141.25146.63
Year 5 PV (M)153.30160.71168.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,662.045,935.526,219.46
Equity Value (M)6,254.516,546.746,849.96
Shares Outstanding (M)457.43457.43457.43
Fair Value$13.67$14.31$14.97
Upside / Downside-50.78%-48.48%-46.10%

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