Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

JCHX Mining Management Co.,Ltd. (603979.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.90 - $138.92$92.43
Multi-Stage$47.17 - $51.52$49.30
Blended Fair Value$70.87
Current Price$69.74
Upside1.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.99%12.74%0.440.110.090.070.070.070.070.030.050.04
YoY Growth--299.20%20.81%28.91%-0.03%6.70%-1.35%95.00%-25.00%2.04%-66.03%
Dividend Yield--1.10%0.21%0.30%0.34%0.48%0.85%0.73%0.37%0.30%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,243.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)380.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,863.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)448.75280.47168.28
Cash Retained (M)1,863.381,863.381,863.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-448.75-280.47-168.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,414.631,582.911,695.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)656.01656.01656.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.162.412.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.162.412.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.742.993.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$64.90$92.43$138.92
Upside / Downside-6.95%32.54%99.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,243.732,389.572,544.892,710.312,886.483,074.103,166.33
Payout Ratio16.95%31.56%46.17%60.78%75.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)380.35754.181,175.001,647.352,176.132,766.692,928.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)679.50685.94692.39
Year 2 PV (M)953.83971.99990.33
Year 3 PV (M)1,204.841,239.431,274.67
Year 4 PV (M)1,433.981,489.131,545.85
Year 5 PV (M)1,642.611,721.951,804.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,026.4926,235.2827,490.33
Equity Value (M)30,941.2532,343.7233,797.89
Shares Outstanding (M)656.01656.01656.01
Fair Value$47.17$49.30$51.52
Upside / Downside-32.37%-29.30%-26.12%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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