Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

JCHX Mining Management Co.,Ltd. (603979.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.86 - $131.20$88.73
Multi-Stage$46.11 - $50.36$48.19
Blended Fair Value$68.46
Current Price$69.74
Upside-1.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.99%12.74%0.440.110.090.070.070.070.070.030.050.04
YoY Growth--299.20%20.81%28.91%-0.03%6.70%-1.35%95.00%-25.00%2.04%-66.03%
Dividend Yield--1.10%0.21%0.30%0.34%0.48%0.85%0.73%0.37%0.30%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,243.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)380.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,863.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)448.75280.47168.28
Cash Retained (M)1,863.381,863.381,863.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-448.75-280.47-168.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,414.631,582.911,695.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)656.01656.01656.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.162.412.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.162.412.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.742.993.16
WACC / Discount Rate10.09%10.09%10.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$62.86$88.73$131.20
Upside / Downside-9.86%27.23%88.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,243.732,389.572,544.892,710.312,886.483,074.103,166.33
Payout Ratio16.95%31.56%46.17%60.78%75.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)380.35754.181,175.001,647.352,176.132,766.692,928.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.09%10.09%10.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)678.61685.05691.48
Year 2 PV (M)951.33969.45987.74
Year 3 PV (M)1,200.121,234.571,269.67
Year 4 PV (M)1,426.491,481.351,537.78
Year 5 PV (M)1,631.901,710.721,792.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,358.4225,534.9426,756.49
Equity Value (M)30,246.8831,616.0833,035.72
Shares Outstanding (M)656.01656.01656.01
Fair Value$46.11$48.19$50.36
Upside / Downside-33.89%-30.89%-27.79%

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