DDM Analysis: 603868.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$18.32 - $37.54	$25.69
Multi-Stage	$18.24 - $19.94	$19.07
Blended Fair Value	$22.38
Current Price	$35.46
Upside	-36.88%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.01%	15.80%	2.32	2.01	1.01	1.01	1.01	1.51	1.51	1.01	1.01	0.51
YoY Growth	-	-	15.47%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-33.33%	0.00%	50.00%	0.00%	98.43%	-5.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.31%	4.10%	1.22%	2.00%	2.22%	4.22%	3.31%	1.80%	2.13%	1.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	450.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	221.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)	229.04

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	90.08	56.30	33.78
Cash Retained (M)	229.04	229.04	229.04
(-) Cash Required (M)	-90.08	-56.30	-33.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)	138.96	172.74	195.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	432.67	432.67	432.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.40	0.45
LTM Dividend per Share	0.51	0.51	0.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.40	0.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.83	0.91	0.96
WACC / Discount Rate	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%
Growth Rate	3.62%	4.62%	5.62%
Fair Value	$18.32	$25.69	$37.54
Upside / Downside	-48.33%	-27.55%	5.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	450.38	471.17	492.93	515.70	539.51	564.43	581.36
Payout Ratio	49.15%	57.32%	65.49%	73.66%	81.83%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	221.34	270.06	322.81	379.85	441.48	507.99	537.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%
Growth Rate	3.62%	4.62%	5.62%
Year 1 PV (M)	246.92	249.30	251.68
Year 2 PV (M)	269.85	275.09	280.37
Year 3 PV (M)	290.33	298.82	307.47
Year 4 PV (M)	308.51	320.60	333.03
Year 5 PV (M)	324.57	340.54	357.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,449.84	6,767.14	7,096.80
Equity Value (M)	7,890.03	8,251.48	8,626.48
Shares Outstanding (M)	432.67	432.67	432.67
Fair Value	$18.24	$19.07	$19.94
Upside / Downside	-48.57%	-46.22%	-43.77%

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Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance Co., Ltd. (603868.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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