Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance Co., Ltd. (603868.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.32 - $37.54$25.69
Multi-Stage$18.24 - $19.94$19.07
Blended Fair Value$22.38
Current Price$35.46
Upside-36.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.01%15.80%2.322.011.011.011.011.511.511.011.010.51
YoY Growth--15.47%100.00%0.00%0.00%-33.33%0.00%50.00%0.00%98.43%-5.40%
Dividend Yield--6.31%4.10%1.22%2.00%2.22%4.22%3.31%1.80%2.13%1.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)450.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)221.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)229.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90.0856.3033.78
Cash Retained (M)229.04229.04229.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-90.08-56.30-33.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)138.96172.74195.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.67432.67432.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.400.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.400.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.910.96
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate3.62%4.62%5.62%
Fair Value$18.32$25.69$37.54
Upside / Downside-48.33%-27.55%5.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)450.38471.17492.93515.70539.51564.43581.36
Payout Ratio49.15%57.32%65.49%73.66%81.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)221.34270.06322.81379.85441.48507.99537.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate3.62%4.62%5.62%
Year 1 PV (M)246.92249.30251.68
Year 2 PV (M)269.85275.09280.37
Year 3 PV (M)290.33298.82307.47
Year 4 PV (M)308.51320.60333.03
Year 5 PV (M)324.57340.54357.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,449.846,767.147,096.80
Equity Value (M)7,890.038,251.488,626.48
Shares Outstanding (M)432.67432.67432.67
Fair Value$18.24$19.07$19.94
Upside / Downside-48.57%-46.22%-43.77%

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