DDM Analysis: 601633.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.81 - $14.13	$11.92
Multi-Stage	$8.47 - $9.20	$8.83
Blended Fair Value	$10.37
Current Price	$24.60
Upside	-57.84%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.40%	2.93%	0.39	0.42	0.14	0.69	0.30	0.33	0.24	0.39	0.20	0.38
YoY Growth	-	-	-5.45%	188.66%	-79.15%	131.57%	-10.31%	38.58%	-38.96%	92.52%	-45.67%	27.66%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.51%	1.75%	0.52%	2.52%	0.99%	3.74%	2.98%	3.45%	1.62%	4.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	10,899.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,852.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)	8,046.88

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,179.81	1,362.38	817.43
Cash Retained (M)	8,046.88	8,046.88	8,046.88
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,179.81	-1,362.38	-817.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5,867.07	6,684.49	7,229.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	8,509.56	8,509.56	8,509.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.69	0.79	0.85
LTM Dividend per Share	0.34	0.34	0.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.69	0.79	0.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.02	1.12	1.18
WACC / Discount Rate	16.51%	16.51%	16.51%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$9.81	$11.92	$14.13
Upside / Downside	-60.11%	-51.55%	-42.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	10,899.05	11,607.49	12,361.98	13,165.51	14,021.26	14,932.65	15,380.63
Payout Ratio	26.17%	38.94%	51.70%	64.47%	77.23%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,852.18	4,519.40	6,391.32	8,487.49	10,829.16	13,439.38	14,227.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	16.51%	16.51%	16.51%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,842.40	3,878.82	3,915.24
Year 2 PV (M)	4,619.91	4,707.91	4,796.73
Year 3 PV (M)	5,216.07	5,365.81	5,518.38
Year 4 PV (M)	5,658.23	5,875.83	6,099.65
Year 5 PV (M)	5,970.17	6,258.53	6,557.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	46,763.99	49,022.71	51,367.87
Equity Value (M)	72,070.77	75,109.61	78,255.81
Shares Outstanding (M)	8,509.56	8,509.56	8,509.56
Fair Value	$8.47	$8.83	$9.20
Upside / Downside	-65.57%	-64.12%	-62.62%

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Great Wall Motor Company Limited (601633.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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