Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Great Wall Motor Company Limited (601633.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.81 - $14.13$11.92
Multi-Stage$8.47 - $9.20$8.83
Blended Fair Value$10.37
Current Price$24.60
Upside-57.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.40%2.93%0.390.420.140.690.300.330.240.390.200.38
YoY Growth---5.45%188.66%-79.15%131.57%-10.31%38.58%-38.96%92.52%-45.67%27.66%
Dividend Yield--1.51%1.75%0.52%2.52%0.99%3.74%2.98%3.45%1.62%4.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,899.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,852.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,046.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,179.811,362.38817.43
Cash Retained (M)8,046.888,046.888,046.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,179.81-1,362.38-817.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,867.076,684.497,229.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,509.568,509.568,509.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.790.85
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.790.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.121.18
WACC / Discount Rate16.51%16.51%16.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.81$11.92$14.13
Upside / Downside-60.11%-51.55%-42.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,899.0511,607.4912,361.9813,165.5114,021.2614,932.6515,380.63
Payout Ratio26.17%38.94%51.70%64.47%77.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,852.184,519.406,391.328,487.4910,829.1613,439.3814,227.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate16.51%16.51%16.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,842.403,878.823,915.24
Year 2 PV (M)4,619.914,707.914,796.73
Year 3 PV (M)5,216.075,365.815,518.38
Year 4 PV (M)5,658.235,875.836,099.65
Year 5 PV (M)5,970.176,258.536,557.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,763.9949,022.7151,367.87
Equity Value (M)72,070.7775,109.6178,255.81
Shares Outstanding (M)8,509.568,509.568,509.56
Fair Value$8.47$8.83$9.20
Upside / Downside-65.57%-64.12%-62.62%

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