DDM Analysis: 601375.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.58 - $3.04	$2.16
Multi-Stage	$3.78 - $4.16	$3.97
Blended Fair Value	$3.07
Current Price	$4.58
Upside	-33.02%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-8.54%	22.30%	0.09	0.08	0.11	0.14	0.10	0.13	0.15	0.28	0.33	0.27
YoY Growth	-	-	11.29%	-31.52%	-20.96%	39.55%	-23.87%	-9.09%	-48.32%	-14.87%	24.62%	2,247.81%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.10%	2.08%	3.01%	3.06%	2.25%	2.72%	2.31%	4.53%	2.86%	4.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	472.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	267.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)	204.31

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	94.43	59.02	35.41
Cash Retained (M)	204.31	204.31	204.31
(-) Cash Required (M)	-94.43	-59.02	-35.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)	109.88	145.29	168.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,637.29	4,637.29	4,637.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.08	0.09	0.09
WACC / Discount Rate	5.19%	5.19%	5.19%
Growth Rate	0.03%	1.03%	2.03%
Fair Value	$1.58	$2.16	$3.04
Upside / Downside	-65.51%	-52.73%	-33.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	472.13	476.99	481.89	486.85	491.86	496.92	511.83
Payout Ratio	56.73%	63.38%	70.04%	76.69%	83.35%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	267.82	302.32	337.50	373.37	409.94	447.23	473.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.19%	5.19%	5.19%
Growth Rate	0.03%	1.03%	2.03%
Year 1 PV (M)	284.57	287.41	290.26
Year 2 PV (M)	299.03	305.04	311.11
Year 3 PV (M)	311.39	320.82	330.44
Year 4 PV (M)	321.82	334.88	348.34
Year 5 PV (M)	330.47	347.33	364.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)	16,003.03	16,819.10	17,668.14
Equity Value (M)	17,550.30	18,414.58	19,313.14
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,637.29	4,637.29	4,637.29
Fair Value	$3.78	$3.97	$4.16
Upside / Downside	-17.37%	-13.30%	-9.07%

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Central China Securities Co., Ltd. (601375.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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