Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Central China Securities Co., Ltd. (601375.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.58 - $3.04$2.16
Multi-Stage$3.78 - $4.16$3.97
Blended Fair Value$3.07
Current Price$4.58
Upside-33.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.54%22.30%0.090.080.110.140.100.130.150.280.330.27
YoY Growth--11.29%-31.52%-20.96%39.55%-23.87%-9.09%-48.32%-14.87%24.62%2,247.81%
Dividend Yield--2.10%2.08%3.01%3.06%2.25%2.72%2.31%4.53%2.86%4.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)472.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)267.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)204.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)94.4359.0235.41
Cash Retained (M)204.31204.31204.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-94.43-59.02-35.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)109.88145.29168.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,637.294,637.294,637.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate5.19%5.19%5.19%
Growth Rate0.03%1.03%2.03%
Fair Value$1.58$2.16$3.04
Upside / Downside-65.51%-52.73%-33.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)472.13476.99481.89486.85491.86496.92511.83
Payout Ratio56.73%63.38%70.04%76.69%83.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)267.82302.32337.50373.37409.94447.23473.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.19%5.19%5.19%
Growth Rate0.03%1.03%2.03%
Year 1 PV (M)284.57287.41290.26
Year 2 PV (M)299.03305.04311.11
Year 3 PV (M)311.39320.82330.44
Year 4 PV (M)321.82334.88348.34
Year 5 PV (M)330.47347.33364.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,003.0316,819.1017,668.14
Equity Value (M)17,550.3018,414.5819,313.14
Shares Outstanding (M)4,637.294,637.294,637.29
Fair Value$3.78$3.97$4.16
Upside / Downside-17.37%-13.30%-9.07%

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