DDM Analysis: 2722.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.98 - $2.91	$2.42
Multi-Stage	$4.88 - $5.38	$5.13
Blended Fair Value	$3.78
Current Price	$1.09
Upside	246.50%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-11.01%	-1.59%	0.04	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.08	0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	-16.85%	14.36%	-0.28%	4.24%	-43.54%	1.54%	0.44%	199.37%	-45.65%	-8.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.67%	6.35%	8.08%	8.13%	11.00%	14.55%	16.27%	10.33%	3.07%	5.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	968.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	341.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)	627.22

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	193.79	121.12	72.67
Cash Retained (M)	627.22	627.22	627.22
(-) Cash Required (M)	-193.79	-121.12	-72.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)	433.42	506.09	554.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,730.53	3,730.53	3,730.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.14	0.15
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.14	0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.21	0.23	0.24
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-3.59%	-2.59%	-1.59%
Fair Value	$1.98	$2.42	$2.91
Upside / Downside	81.43%	122.45%	166.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	968.97	943.87	919.42	895.60	872.39	849.79	875.29
Payout Ratio	35.27%	46.22%	57.16%	68.11%	79.05%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	341.76	436.22	525.56	609.97	689.66	764.81	809.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-3.59%	-2.59%	-1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)	405.24	409.44	413.65
Year 2 PV (M)	453.56	463.02	472.57
Year 3 PV (M)	489.03	504.40	520.10
Year 4 PV (M)	513.65	535.29	557.62
Year 5 PV (M)	529.17	557.19	586.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)	15,826.23	16,664.22	17,537.33
Equity Value (M)	18,216.88	19,133.57	20,087.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,730.53	3,730.53	3,730.53
Fair Value	$4.88	$5.13	$5.38
Upside / Downside	348.00%	370.54%	394.01%

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Chongqing Machinery & Electric Co., Ltd. (2722.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener