Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Machinery & Electric Co., Ltd. (2722.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.98 - $2.91$2.42
Multi-Stage$4.88 - $5.38$5.13
Blended Fair Value$3.78
Current Price$1.09
Upside246.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.01%-1.59%0.040.050.040.040.040.080.070.070.020.05
YoY Growth---16.85%14.36%-0.28%4.24%-43.54%1.54%0.44%199.37%-45.65%-8.00%
Dividend Yield--5.67%6.35%8.08%8.13%11.00%14.55%16.27%10.33%3.07%5.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)968.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)341.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)627.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)193.79121.1272.67
Cash Retained (M)627.22627.22627.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-193.79-121.12-72.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)433.42506.09554.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,730.533,730.533,730.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-3.59%-2.59%-1.59%
Fair Value$1.98$2.42$2.91
Upside / Downside81.43%122.45%166.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)968.97943.87919.42895.60872.39849.79875.29
Payout Ratio35.27%46.22%57.16%68.11%79.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)341.76436.22525.56609.97689.66764.81809.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-3.59%-2.59%-1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)405.24409.44413.65
Year 2 PV (M)453.56463.02472.57
Year 3 PV (M)489.03504.40520.10
Year 4 PV (M)513.65535.29557.62
Year 5 PV (M)529.17557.19586.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,826.2316,664.2217,537.33
Equity Value (M)18,216.8819,133.5720,087.65
Shares Outstanding (M)3,730.533,730.533,730.53
Fair Value$4.88$5.13$5.38
Upside / Downside348.00%370.54%394.01%

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