DDM Analysis: 002732.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.98 - $10.04	$7.76
Multi-Stage	$8.14 - $8.92	$8.52
Blended Fair Value	$8.14
Current Price	$16.52
Upside	-50.72%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.34%	-3.47%	0.16	0.24	0.23	0.17	0.43	0.14	0.67	0.16	0.26	0.21
YoY Growth	-	-	-30.02%	0.09%	37.43%	-60.60%	210.69%	-79.01%	315.78%	-38.53%	25.00%	-11.10%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.04%	1.30%	1.18%	0.80%	2.08%	0.67%	3.48%	0.63%	0.80%	0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	74.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	24.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)	50.48

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	14.98	9.37	5.62
Cash Retained (M)	50.48	50.48	50.48
(-) Cash Required (M)	-14.98	-9.37	-5.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)	35.49	41.11	44.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	151.16	151.16	151.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.23	0.27	0.30
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.23	0.27	0.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.40	0.43	0.46
WACC / Discount Rate	8.04%	8.04%	8.04%
Growth Rate	1.33%	2.33%	3.33%
Fair Value	$5.98	$7.76	$10.04
Upside / Downside	-63.80%	-53.02%	-39.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	74.92	76.67	78.45	80.28	82.15	84.06	86.58
Payout Ratio	32.63%	44.11%	55.58%	67.05%	78.53%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	24.45	33.81	43.60	53.83	64.51	75.65	80.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.04%	8.04%	8.04%
Growth Rate	1.33%	2.33%	3.33%
Year 1 PV (M)	30.99	31.30	31.60
Year 2 PV (M)	36.62	37.35	38.09
Year 3 PV (M)	41.44	42.68	43.94
Year 4 PV (M)	45.51	47.34	49.21
Year 5 PV (M)	48.92	51.38	53.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,026.54	1,078.20	1,131.93
Equity Value (M)	1,230.02	1,288.24	1,348.71
Shares Outstanding (M)	151.16	151.16	151.16
Fair Value	$8.14	$8.52	$8.92
Upside / Downside	-50.74%	-48.41%	-45.99%

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DAL	Delta Air Lines, Inc.	0.92%	$0.63	8.94%
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Guangdong Yantang Dairy Co., Ltd. (002732.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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