Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Guangdong Yantang Dairy Co., Ltd. (002732.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.98 - $10.04$7.76
Multi-Stage$8.14 - $8.92$8.52
Blended Fair Value$8.14
Current Price$16.52
Upside-50.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.34%-3.47%0.160.240.230.170.430.140.670.160.260.21
YoY Growth---30.02%0.09%37.43%-60.60%210.69%-79.01%315.78%-38.53%25.00%-11.10%
Dividend Yield--1.04%1.30%1.18%0.80%2.08%0.67%3.48%0.63%0.80%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)74.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.989.375.62
Cash Retained (M)50.4850.4850.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.98-9.37-5.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.4941.1144.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)151.16151.16151.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.430.46
WACC / Discount Rate8.04%8.04%8.04%
Growth Rate1.33%2.33%3.33%
Fair Value$5.98$7.76$10.04
Upside / Downside-63.80%-53.02%-39.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)74.9276.6778.4580.2882.1584.0686.58
Payout Ratio32.63%44.11%55.58%67.05%78.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.4533.8143.6053.8364.5175.6580.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.04%8.04%8.04%
Growth Rate1.33%2.33%3.33%
Year 1 PV (M)30.9931.3031.60
Year 2 PV (M)36.6237.3538.09
Year 3 PV (M)41.4442.6843.94
Year 4 PV (M)45.5147.3449.21
Year 5 PV (M)48.9251.3853.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,026.541,078.201,131.93
Equity Value (M)1,230.021,288.241,348.71
Shares Outstanding (M)151.16151.16151.16
Fair Value$8.14$8.52$8.92
Upside / Downside-50.74%-48.41%-45.99%

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