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H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB (publ) (HMSB.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.97 - $101.42$81.77
Multi-Stage$148.87 - $163.86$156.22
Blended Fair Value$118.99
Current Price$140.99
Upside-15.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.31%-4.00%6.516.596.666.700.0010.0510.0510.0510.0510.05
YoY Growth---1.14%-1.03%-0.66%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.63%
Dividend Yield--4.45%4.52%5.03%4.00%0.00%5.89%7.23%7.30%4.22%3.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,881.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,221.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,660.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,176.201,360.13816.08
Cash Retained (M)5,660.005,660.005,660.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,176.20-1,360.13-816.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,483.804,299.884,843.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,605.841,605.841,605.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.172.683.02
LTM Dividend per Share3.253.253.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.172.683.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.425.936.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-1.85%-0.85%0.15%
Fair Value$64.97$81.77$101.42
Upside / Downside-53.92%-42.00%-28.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,881.0010,788.2510,696.2910,605.1210,514.7210,425.1010,737.85
Payout Ratio47.98%56.39%64.79%73.19%81.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,221.006,083.086,930.097,762.228,579.659,382.599,932.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-1.85%-0.85%0.15%
Year 1 PV (M)5,662.895,720.595,778.29
Year 2 PV (M)6,005.766,128.766,253.02
Year 3 PV (M)6,262.236,455.606,652.91
Year 4 PV (M)6,443.586,710.236,985.07
Year 5 PV (M)6,559.876,900.937,256.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)208,122.36218,943.15230,209.40
Equity Value (M)239,056.69250,859.26263,134.71
Shares Outstanding (M)1,605.841,605.841,605.84
Fair Value$148.87$156.22$163.86
Upside / Downside5.59%10.80%16.22%

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