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Five Star Bancorp (FSBC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.03 - $27.39$23.11
Multi-Stage$30.88 - $33.91$32.36
Blended Fair Value$27.74
Current Price$32.20
Upside-13.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-9.17%0.00%0.760.610.722.441.241.240.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--25.50%-15.41%-70.54%96.98%0.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.75%2.72%3.37%8.63%6.20%8.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.467.164.30
Cash Retained (M)40.2140.2140.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.46-7.16-4.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.7633.0535.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.2621.2621.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.351.551.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.351.551.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.162.362.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$19.03$23.11$27.39
Upside / Downside-40.89%-28.22%-14.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.2856.7156.1455.5855.0254.4756.11
Payout Ratio29.79%41.84%53.88%65.92%77.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.0723.7230.2536.6442.9049.0351.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)21.5321.7521.96
Year 2 PV (M)24.9025.4125.93
Year 3 PV (M)27.3728.2129.08
Year 4 PV (M)29.0730.2831.52
Year 5 PV (M)30.1531.7233.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)523.41550.66579.04
Equity Value (M)656.43688.03720.89
Shares Outstanding (M)21.2621.2621.26
Fair Value$30.88$32.36$33.91
Upside / Downside-4.11%0.51%5.30%

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