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Codorus Valley Bancorp, Inc. (CVLY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.11 - $143.55$82.75
Multi-Stage$37.24 - $40.68$38.93
Blended Fair Value$60.84
Current Price$22.24
Upside173.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS2.73%10.55%0.660.590.550.530.620.570.470.430.320.29
YoY Growth--10.90%8.43%3.72%-15.56%8.63%21.50%8.81%34.68%10.40%21.26%
Dividend Yield--2.96%2.86%2.49%2.86%3.88%2.81%1.85%1.94%1.94%1.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.452.781.67
Cash Retained (M)15.7915.7915.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.45-2.78-1.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.3513.0114.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.649.649.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.181.351.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.181.351.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.022.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$54.11$82.75$143.55
Upside / Downside143.32%272.07%545.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22.2423.6825.2226.8628.6130.4731.38
Payout Ratio28.98%41.18%53.39%65.59%77.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.449.7513.4617.6222.2527.4229.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8.858.949.02
Year 2 PV (M)11.1011.3111.53
Year 3 PV (M)13.1913.5713.95
Year 4 PV (M)15.1315.7116.31
Year 5 PV (M)16.9217.7418.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)293.78307.97322.71
Equity Value (M)358.98375.24392.10
Shares Outstanding (M)9.649.649.64
Fair Value$37.24$38.93$40.68
Upside / Downside67.46%75.05%82.91%

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