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Sisecam Resources LP (CINR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.69 - $13.34$11.53
Multi-Stage$17.52 - $19.30$18.39
Blended Fair Value$14.96
Current Price$16.50
Upside-9.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2021202020192018201720162015201420132012
DPS-21.70%-3.97%0.340.691.612.302.291.171.121.083.681.54
YoY Growth---50.36%-56.92%-30.11%0.22%96.54%4.52%3.76%-70.78%138.91%199.15%
Dividend Yield--2.08%5.38%15.50%9.13%8.22%4.09%4.32%4.45%15.21%6.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)35.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.084.432.66
Cash Retained (M)28.6028.6028.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.08-4.43-2.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.5224.1825.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.8019.8019.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.091.221.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.091.221.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.431.561.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-4.94%-3.94%-2.94%
Fair Value$9.69$11.53$13.34
Upside / Downside-41.28%-30.13%-19.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)35.4034.0132.6731.3830.1528.9629.83
Payout Ratio19.21%33.37%47.53%61.68%75.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.8011.3515.5319.3622.8626.0627.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-4.94%-3.94%-2.94%
Year 1 PV (M)10.2910.4010.51
Year 2 PV (M)12.7713.0413.32
Year 3 PV (M)14.4514.9115.38
Year 4 PV (M)15.4816.1416.82
Year 5 PV (M)16.0016.8617.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)277.83292.75308.31
Equity Value (M)346.82364.10382.09
Shares Outstanding (M)19.8019.8019.80
Fair Value$17.52$18.39$19.30
Upside / Downside6.16%11.45%16.96%

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