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The United Laboratories International Holdings Limited (3933.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$269.66 - $653.56$612.48
Multi-Stage$94.59 - $103.58$99.00
Blended Fair Value$355.74
Current Price$13.70
Upside2,496.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS59.56%0.00%0.560.320.150.120.070.050.050.000.000.00
YoY Growth--75.00%113.27%23.45%72.35%30.25%16.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.82%4.92%3.47%3.42%1.52%1.07%1.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,970.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,380.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,589.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,194.17746.36447.82
Cash Retained (M)4,589.934,589.934,589.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,194.17-746.36-447.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,395.763,843.574,142.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,816.901,816.901,816.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.872.122.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.760.760.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.872.122.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.632.883.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$269.66$612.48$653.56
Upside / Downside1,868.33%4,370.69%4,670.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,970.876,358.986,772.317,212.517,681.338,180.618,426.03
Payout Ratio23.13%36.50%49.88%63.25%76.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,380.942,321.183,377.814,562.005,885.867,362.557,794.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,158.472,178.922,199.38
Year 2 PV (M)2,920.852,976.483,032.64
Year 3 PV (M)3,668.313,773.613,880.91
Year 4 PV (M)4,401.064,570.314,744.40
Year 5 PV (M)5,119.325,366.585,623.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)153,585.68161,003.92168,706.08
Equity Value (M)171,853.67179,869.83188,186.73
Shares Outstanding (M)1,816.901,816.901,816.90
Fair Value$94.59$99.00$103.58
Upside / Downside590.41%622.62%656.03%

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