Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Home Product Center Public Company Limited (HMPRO-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Home ImprovementSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.19 - $10.83$8.17
Multi-Stage$10.75 - $11.78$11.25
Blended Fair Value$9.71
Current Price$7.45
Upside30.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.57%32.96%0.410.390.370.320.310.370.330.280.270.17
YoY Growth--2.56%5.40%15.64%3.25%-16.25%12.17%17.80%3.76%59.99%628.11%
Dividend Yield--4.71%3.73%2.60%2.04%2.12%3.38%2.20%2.00%2.83%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,136.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,362.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)773.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,227.30767.06460.24
Cash Retained (M)773.53773.53773.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,227.30-767.06-460.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)-453.776.46313.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,984.4412,984.4412,984.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.000.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.000.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.410.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate0.59%1.59%2.59%
Fair Value$6.19$8.17$10.83
Upside / Downside-16.87%9.69%45.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,136.516,233.906,332.836,433.336,535.436,639.146,838.32
Payout Ratio87.39%87.92%88.44%88.96%89.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,362.985,480.585,600.555,722.955,847.835,975.236,325.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate0.59%1.59%2.59%
Year 1 PV (M)5,084.555,135.105,185.65
Year 2 PV (M)4,820.414,916.735,014.01
Year 3 PV (M)4,569.834,707.484,847.88
Year 4 PV (M)4,332.134,506.994,687.09
Year 5 PV (M)4,106.654,314.884,531.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)116,623.04122,536.58128,687.61
Equity Value (M)139,536.60146,117.76152,953.70
Shares Outstanding (M)12,984.4412,984.4412,984.44
Fair Value$10.75$11.25$11.78
Upside / Downside44.25%51.05%58.12%

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