Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Jilin Expressway Co., Ltd. (601518.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.06 - $57.08$53.50
Multi-Stage$9.18 - $10.05$9.60
Blended Fair Value$31.55
Current Price$2.70
Upside1,068.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.73%3.32%0.100.010.040.040.050.070.110.130.110.10
YoY Growth--1,155.15%-80.21%-7.38%-19.76%-28.42%-35.18%-9.48%18.80%3.96%44.82%
Dividend Yield--3.53%0.32%1.88%2.17%3.29%4.49%5.03%5.32%3.44%3.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)544.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)177.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)367.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.9868.1140.87
Cash Retained (M)367.28367.28367.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.98-68.11-40.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)258.30299.17326.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,898.401,898.401,898.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.06$53.50$57.08
Upside / Downside1,161.41%1,881.34%2,014.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)544.91580.32618.05658.22701.00746.57768.96
Payout Ratio32.60%44.08%55.56%67.04%78.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)177.62255.79343.38441.26550.42671.91711.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)238.57240.83243.10
Year 2 PV (M)298.70304.39310.13
Year 3 PV (M)358.01368.29378.76
Year 4 PV (M)416.51432.53449.00
Year 5 PV (M)474.21497.12520.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,632.4516,387.5117,171.46
Equity Value (M)17,418.4618,230.6619,073.34
Shares Outstanding (M)1,898.401,898.401,898.40
Fair Value$9.18$9.60$10.05
Upside / Downside239.83%255.67%272.11%

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