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Definitive Analysis

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Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. (000858.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$815.01 - $1,456.79$1,365.22
Multi-Stage$230.98 - $252.90$241.74
Blended Fair Value$803.48
Current Price$121.48
Upside561.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.40%21.17%4.673.783.022.582.201.701.300.880.780.59
YoY Growth--23.48%25.11%17.17%17.27%29.41%30.77%47.70%12.50%33.33%-14.29%
Dividend Yield--3.56%2.40%1.53%1.66%0.82%1.48%1.35%1.33%1.82%2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28,433.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,999.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)18,434.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,686.733,554.212,132.52
Cash Retained (M)18,434.6418,434.6418,434.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,686.73-3,554.21-2,132.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)12,747.9114,880.4416,302.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,881.653,881.653,881.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.283.834.20
LTM Dividend per Share2.582.582.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.283.834.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.866.416.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$815.01$1,365.22$1,456.79
Upside / Downside570.90%1,023.83%1,099.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28,433.6730,281.8532,250.1834,346.4436,578.9638,956.5940,125.28
Payout Ratio35.17%46.13%57.10%68.07%79.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,999.0213,969.9018,414.7523,378.4028,909.5335,060.9337,115.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13,023.6313,147.0813,270.53
Year 2 PV (M)16,004.5516,309.3916,617.11
Year 3 PV (M)18,942.2519,486.0120,040.08
Year 4 PV (M)21,837.1822,676.9823,540.77
Year 5 PV (M)24,689.8225,882.3427,120.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)802,097.87840,839.50881,063.86
Equity Value (M)896,595.30938,341.31981,652.86
Shares Outstanding (M)3,881.653,881.653,881.65
Fair Value$230.98$241.74$252.90
Upside / Downside90.14%98.99%108.18%

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