Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wagners Holding Company Limited (WGN.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.35 - $25.34$9.46
Multi-Stage$4.92 - $5.40$5.16
Blended Fair Value$7.31
Current Price$2.29
Upside219.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.020.000.000.000.000.000.050.160.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-69.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.78%3.72%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.604.122.47
Cash Retained (M)28.3128.3128.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.60-4.12-2.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.7124.1825.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)192.11192.11192.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.24%6.24%6.24%
Growth Rate3.57%4.57%5.57%
Fair Value$5.35$9.46$25.34
Upside / Downside133.47%312.97%1,006.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.0034.5136.0937.7439.4641.2742.51
Payout Ratio14.21%29.37%44.53%59.69%74.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.6910.1316.0722.5229.5437.1439.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.24%6.24%6.24%
Growth Rate3.57%4.57%5.57%
Year 1 PV (M)9.459.549.63
Year 2 PV (M)13.9714.2414.51
Year 3 PV (M)18.2518.7919.33
Year 4 PV (M)22.3123.1924.09
Year 5 PV (M)26.1627.4528.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)855.64897.75941.50
Equity Value (M)945.78990.941,037.84
Shares Outstanding (M)192.11192.11192.11
Fair Value$4.92$5.16$5.40
Upside / Downside114.98%125.24%135.90%

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