Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$95.02 - $443.23$212.05
Multi-Stage$63.89 - $69.95$66.86
Blended Fair Value$139.46
Current Price$38.08
Upside266.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.19%4.16%1.111.101.091.041.031.000.960.940.870.82
YoY Growth--1.39%0.70%4.38%1.48%3.05%3.97%2.44%7.89%6.54%10.20%
Dividend Yield--2.51%2.40%2.90%3.19%2.52%3.09%2.56%2.13%1.90%2.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)295.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)153.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)142.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.0036.8822.13
Cash Retained (M)142.00142.00142.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.00-36.88-22.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)83.00105.13119.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)131.14131.14131.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.800.91
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.800.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.801.972.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate4.51%5.51%6.51%
Fair Value$95.02$212.05$443.23
Upside / Downside149.51%456.85%1,063.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)295.00311.25328.39346.47365.55385.68397.25
Payout Ratio51.86%59.49%67.12%74.75%82.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)153.00185.16220.41258.97301.11347.11367.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate4.51%5.51%6.51%
Year 1 PV (M)172.24173.89175.53
Year 2 PV (M)190.71194.37198.08
Year 3 PV (M)208.43214.47220.63
Year 4 PV (M)225.43234.18243.19
Year 5 PV (M)241.73253.51265.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,340.187,698.148,069.94
Equity Value (M)8,378.718,768.579,173.13
Shares Outstanding (M)131.14131.14131.14
Fair Value$63.89$66.86$69.95
Upside / Downside67.78%75.58%83.69%

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