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Invesco Pennsylvania Value Municipal Income Trust (VPV)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset Management - IncomeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.15 - $5.45$4.83
Multi-Stage$9.11 - $10.04$9.56
Blended Fair Value$7.20
Current Price$10.65
Upside-32.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.97%-8.89%0.350.350.450.610.600.630.710.640.710.79
YoY Growth--0.72%-22.62%-25.83%1.44%-4.63%-10.89%10.34%-10.17%-10.37%-11.01%
Dividend Yield--3.30%3.47%4.53%4.93%4.66%4.84%5.76%5.41%5.79%6.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.473.422.05
Cash Retained (M)10.8810.8810.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.47-3.42-2.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.417.468.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.5023.5023.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.320.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.320.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-10.89%-9.89%-8.89%
Fair Value$4.15$4.83$5.45
Upside / Downside-61.05%-54.65%-48.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27.3524.6422.2020.0118.0316.2416.73
Payout Ratio60.22%66.17%72.13%78.09%84.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.4716.3116.0215.6215.1514.6215.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-10.89%-9.89%-8.89%
Year 1 PV (M)14.7814.9515.11
Year 2 PV (M)13.1613.4613.76
Year 3 PV (M)11.6412.0312.44
Year 4 PV (M)10.2310.7011.18
Year 5 PV (M)8.959.4610.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)155.30164.21173.53
Equity Value (M)214.05224.80236.01
Shares Outstanding (M)23.5023.5023.50
Fair Value$9.11$9.56$10.04
Upside / Downside-14.49%-10.20%-5.72%

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